CMC Markets专栏:道指标普指数或跌势再来

美国股指均已接近历史最高位，目前有潜在遇阻回调之势。从技术图形来看， 美国标普500的潜在回调位置在2081，2030， 上方潜在阻力在2114；道琼斯指数的潜在回探位置为18000，17743与17305。

基本面：美联储加息放缓，导致美国三大股指自2月份以来持续上涨，目前道琼斯指数（18123）与美国标普指数500 (2105)均已接近2005年5月份的历史最高点。近日由于中国出现大宗商品疯狂抄底行情，导致大量资金由股市撤离转向商品期货市场，将可能潜在影响全球股指修正回撤。

技术图形一：

时间周期：日线图

技术形态：潜在三重熊背离

使用技术指标：

• 趋势指标：黄金分割延展线
• 随机震荡指标：Stoch随机震荡指标（14,3,3,0.8,0.2）,  MACD（12,26,9）

美国标普指数技术图表中显示价格与技术指标较为明显的潜在熊背离形态， 是较为强烈的潜在空头信号。结合黄金分割延展线来看， 上方的潜在阻力位置在2114附近，潜在回撤目标为2081（138.0%），2030（100.0%）。
技术指标中Stochastic随即震荡指标出现在超买区域，有准备回调的可能性，并且MACD与Stoch均出现较为明显的三重熊背离形态。

技术图形二：

时间周期：日线图

技术形态：上行通道顶部遇阻回调

使用技术指标：

• 趋势指标：保利加通道、黄金分割延展线
• 随机震荡指标：Stoch随机震荡指标（14,3,3,0.8,0.2） ，MACD（12,26,9）

道琼斯指数与标普指数相似，同样技术指标MACD与Stoch出现潜在的三重熊背离形态。蜡烛图中出现潜在的筑顶形态-连续两日出现顶部柱身短小的阳柱，并且路遇保利加通道上轨。 潜在回撤目标在18000（161.8%）整数位置，然后是17743（138.0%，保利加通道中轨）， 17300（100.0%，保利加通道下轨）附近。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。